Cheniere Energy ($LNG) doesn’t chase hype—it powers it. Locked 90 % into long-term contracts, it’s the toll road of global energy. CEO Jack Fusco is scaling from 45 to 100 mtpa while printing steady cash flow. At $235, the market prices it like a utility, yet a beat could launch it toward $260 +. Buy the core, then add one $260 call. Cash funds it. Convexity multiplies it. The world’s AI runs on energy—Cheniere sells the spark.
(Evidence-driven, valuation-disciplined, anti-hype lens)
TL;DR:
Cheniere Energy is the definition of a cash-flow compounder disguised as a cyclical. Beneath LNG market headlines, its toll-road model prints dollars on volume, not price. The stock trades at ~13.7× earnings, well below hype peers, with 90%+ contracted revenue visibility through the decade. For Nanalyze, that’s the closest thing to a bond proxy in the energy space.
Cheniere generated $4.6 B in Q2 2025 revenue (+47 % Y/Y) and $1.6 B net income, with free cash flow still positive despite heavy expansion. Debt sits at $33 B but is serviceable via $2.9 B EBITDA and $4 B liquidity. Price-to-book of 7.8 looks rich until you factor in the infrastructure-like margins (35 % net, 54 % EBITDA growth).
SVR ≈ 5.1 (market cap $51.7 B ÷ $10 B FCF run-rate) — below the Nanalyze catalog median of 7, a rare discount for a dominant exporter.
CEO Jack Fusco’s 10-year tenure demonstrates consistent, early delivery. At the 2025 Gastech Conference, he summarized the expansion plan bluntly:
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Right now we’re at 45 million tons per annum … we’re going to get to 60 … 75 … and all the way to 100 million tons by the end of this decade.
He also emphasized operational reliability:
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We’ve been early on our construction projects … the safest workplaces and the highest reliability in the world. We’re 11 % of the global production of LNG today.
Corpus Christi Stage 3 is a year ahead (adds ~100 tankers in 2026), and ~90 % of volumes sit in long-term take-or-pay SPAs. Competitors like Venture Global remain construction stories; Cheniere ships 11 % of global LNG today. That’s execution, not storytelling.