New Fortress Energy trades like a dying stock — and that’s what makes it alive.
At $2.30, 40 % of shares are short, and founder Wes Edens owns 28 %.
One spark — a refinancing, a filing, a headline — and shorts scramble.
Nanalyze says “avoid.”
Alan says “buy the $3 call.”
It’s not about balance sheets; it’s about timing.
Two-thirds odds it survives, one-third it erupts.
This isn’t investing.
It’s betting on who panics first.
Ticker: NFE | Sector: Energy Transition / LNG Infrastructure | Date: Oct 2025
New Fortress Energy (NFE) trades like a bankruptcy option at ≈ $2.30 (–95 % from 2021 highs). The thesis isn’t about discounted cash flow—it’s about convexity.
Founder Wes Edens (≈ 28 % owner) has every incentive to defend his flagship through debt rollovers, asset sales, or direct capital injection. That reputational backstop intersects with a structural powder keg: 52.3 M shares short, 40.6 % of float, 4.17 days-to-cover, 44.8 % dark-pool ratio.
Any credible liquidity headline could trigger a forced-cover rally. The trade is to buy optionality, not the company—using a cheap call that captures asymmetric upside and caps loss at the premium.