Coffee shop, two stools. A napkin and a pen.
You: “Okay, one napkin. Think one truckload = one wet tonne of nodules.”
Friend: “What’s a tonne worth?”
You (scribbling): “Basket of Ni/Cu/Co/Mn ≈ $400/tonne at today-ish prices.”
Friend: “And it costs?”
You: “To lift, ship, process, monitor, run the team—call it $280/tonne.”
Friend: “So profit?”
You (circling): “$400 − $280 ≈ $120/tonne cash. That’s our EBITDA per tonne.”
Friend: “How much do they move?”
You: “One system = ~1.3 million tonnes/year → 1.3M × $120 ≈ $156M EBITDA.”
Friend: “What’s that in stock price?”
You (new line): “Put a boring 10× on $156M → $1.56B EV.
Subtract ~$0.4B debt → $1.16B equity.
Divide by ~406M shares → ~$2.85/share for one system.”
Friend: “And two systems?”
You: “Just double the tonnes: ~$312M EBITDA → about $5–6/share on the same $120/tonne.”
Friend: “What if margins are better?”